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World Cup final · Sunday 19 July

Spain21:00Kick-offArgentina

Match resultOur pick: Spain or draw

Spain2.30 Draw3.05 Argentina3.70

Total goalsSecond pick: Under 2.5 goals

Over 2.52.25 Under 2.51.65

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9:41

fairside.ai

World Cup·Sunday, July 19·MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Spain

21:00Kickoff, your time

Argentina

Our call

There is very little between Spain and Argentina, but a draw would not be a surprise.

Spain36%

Draw35%

Argentina29%

Example card·a real one goes further

Goals we expect0.9–0.8Spain v Argentina, on average

Under 2.5 goals75%Chance of 2 goals or fewer in total

Both teams score34%Chance both teams score at least once

Tap through all 7 sections1 of 7

Form

Both in form. Spain unbeaten. Argentina unbeaten.

Last 6 · oldest to latest

Spain

WWWWWW

6W·0D·0L

won 6 in a row · scored in 6 straight · 5 days since their last match, 4 in three weeks

Argentina

WWWWWW

6W·0D·0L

won 14 in a row · scored in 14 straight · 4 days since their last match, 4 in three weeks

Every result, with how good the opponent was

Spain

W Jul 14 A 2-0 France 91
W Jul 10 H 2-1 Belgium 79
W Jul 6 A 1-0 Portugal 85
W Jul 2 H 3-0 Austria 73
W Jun 27 A 1-0 Uruguay 76
W Jun 21 H 4-0 Saudi Arabia 64

Argentina

W Jul 15 A 2-1 England 86
W Jul 12 H 3-1 Switzerland 77
W Jul 7 H 3-2 Egypt 72
W Jul 3 H 3-2 Cape Verde 58
W Jun 28 A 3-1 Jordan 54
W Jun 22 H 2-0 Austria 73

The number beside each result is the opponent's strength out of 100. Five wins over weak opponents are an easy run, not form.

Head to head

Spain have won 1 of the last 2 meetings.

From Spain's side · oldest to latest

Spain

L 1–4SepW 6–1Mar

1W·0D·1L

Shown because you will want it. Squads and managers change between meetings, so it does not move the numbers above.

Comparison

Spain ahead on 9 of 10 measures.

Over 197 and 222 matches

Spainper matchArgentina

Strength indexleague 50 94

Goals scoredleague 1.32 2.32

2.01

Goals concededleague 1.32 0.73

0.74

Shotsleague 7.61 15.5

12.0

On targetleague 2.86 5.94

5.20

Possessionleague 34% 64%

47%

Clean sheetsleague 33% 50%

52%

Cornersleague 2.97 6.48

4.67

Yellow cardsleague 1.60 1.20

1.80

Over 2.5 goalsleague 48% 56%

51%

Both teams scoredleague 43% 44%

40%

Failed to scoreleague 33% 10%

16%

Spain are stronger at home. Argentina are weaker away.

Over 106 home matches and 88 away

Spainat home

	At home	Elsewhere	Gap
Goals scored	2.71	1.87	+0.84
On target	6.67	5.07	+1.60
Shots	17.2	13.6	+3.6
Clean sheets	52%	48%	+4%
Corners	6.89	5.99	+0.90

Argentinaaway

	Away	Elsewhere	Gap
Goals scored	1.78	2.16	−0.37
On target	4.93	5.37	−0.45
Shots	11.2	12.5	−1.2
Clean sheets	46%	57%	−11%
Corners	4.57	4.73	−0.16

The likely score

0–0 is the single likeliest score, at 19%.

Fitted on 11,308 matches

Likeliest score

0–0

1–0 16%

1–1 14%

0–1 14%

Spain goals

012345

Argentina goals

Each square is the chance of that exact score. Spain still win more often, 36% to a draw's 35%: a draw is one exact score, and their wins are spread across 1–0 and more.

How the match could go

A tight oneone goal or none in the whole match48%

A drawlevel after 90 minutes35%

Both sides scoreneither keeps a clean sheet34%

Spain win without concedingwinning with a clean sheet26%

Spain by onewinning by exactly one goal23%

Argentina win without concedingwinning with a clean sheet21%

These overlap: one match can be more than one of them.

How the result shifts

	Spain	Draw	Argentina
Now	36%	35%	29%
If over 2.5 goals25% likely	50%+14	11%−24	39%+10
If both sides score34% likely	28%−8	49%+14	23%−6
If under 2.5 goals75% likely	31%−5	43%+8	26%−3

The biggest swing: if it goes over 2.5 goals, the draw drops from 35% to 11%.

Likely scorers

Mikel Oyarzabal is the likeliest to score, at 17%.

Before the team sheets: from who usually starts

Spain

Mikel OyarzabalForward17%

Mikel MerinoMidfield9%

Lamine YamalForward9%

PedriMidfield5%

Ferran TorresForward · often a substitute5%

Argentina

Lionel MessiForward14%

Lautaro MartínezForward11%

Julián ÁlvarezForward8%

Alexis Mac AllisterMidfield5%

Enzo FernándezMidfield5%

Chance of scoring at least once, from each player's shots and goals over the past year, their minutes and the goals we expect from their side.

Lineups

Both sides have named their team.

4-2-3-1 v 4-4-2

Spain4-2-3-1Argentina4-4-2

23Simón

24Cucurella

14Laporte

22Cubarsí

12Porro

8Ruiz

16Rodri

15Baena

10Olmo

19Yamal

21Oyarzabal

23Martínez

3Tagliafico

6Martínez

13Romero

4Montiel

15González

20Mac Allister

24Fernández

7De Paul

9Álvarez

10Messi

Spain benchAlejandro Grimaldo · Martín Zubimendi · Nico Williams · Borja Iglesias · Ferran Torres · Víctor Muñoz · Pedri · Mikel Merino · Marc Pubill

Argentina benchExequiel Palacios · Leandro Paredes · Valentín Barco · Gerónimo Rulli · Nicolás Otamendi · Nahuel Molina · Giovani Lo Celso · Giuliano Simeone · José Manuel López

Odds

Our fair odds.

OutcomeOur chanceFair odds

Spain 36% 2.78+1789/5

Draw 35% 2.86+18615/8

Argentina 29% 3.45+2455/2

Over 2.5 goals 25% 4.02+3023/1

Both sides score 34% 2.96+1962/1

Fair odds are our chance with nothing taken off.

Our picks

High confidence

Main pick71%

Spain or draw

Second pick75%

Under 2.5 goals

Little separates these two, and a draw after ninety minutes is a real outcome.

Spain beat France and Argentina beat England to get here, and the two sides are close on every measure we hold.

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